20* Bears/Packers NFL Thursday No-Brainer on Green Bay -6
Chicago vs. Green Bay,
09/13/2012 20:20 EDT,
Score: 10 - 23
Point Spread: -6/-110 Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers are going to be highly motivated Thursday following just their second regular season loss in the last two years. They were beaten 30-22 by one of the most underrated teams in the league coming into the season in the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday.
I look for the Packers to get back on track in blowout fashion with a home victory in Week 2 over the Chicago Bears. While Chicago is an improved team, its was overhyped coming into the season. The Bears are expecially overvalued now after beating the lowly Indianapolis Colts 41-21 at home last Sunday.
Green Bay has owned Chicago, winning four straight meetings all by 7 points or more. In fact, the Packers have won six of the last seven meetings by 6 points or more. Their lone loss was a fluke in 2010 as they were beaten 20-17 on the road despite outgaining the Bears 379-276 for the game. Devin Hester's 62-yard punt return for a touchdown was the difference in that contest.
In two meetings with the Bears last season, Aaron Rodgers threw eight touchdown and only one interception while beat Chicago by double-digits both times. Rodgers is 4-0 in four career home starts against Chicago. Jay Cutler has thrown six touchdowns and a whopping 12 interceptions while losing five of his six career starts against Green Bay.
This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored.
The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The Packers are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 vs. NFC North opponents. These four trends make for a perfect 27-0 system backing Green Bay. Bet the Packers Thursday.