Colorado vs. Colorado State,
09/01/2012 16:00 EDT,
Score: 17 - 22
Point Spread: +6½/-105 Colorado State
Colorado State +6.5
Colorado has won the last two meetings with Colorado State by double digits, but I'm expecting a much tighter contest this time around. Prior to the last two meetings, Colorado State had either won or lost by 3 points in 8 of 11 meetings.
The Buffaloes won last season's meeting 28-14 but only led by 7 in the 4th quarter. I don't believe they have enough playmakers to pull away in this year's meeting. It really hurts that they lost wide receiver Paul Richardson to an ACL injury. He was expected to be their best playmaker.
Colorado State was better than last season's 3-9 record showed as it suffered four losses by seven points or less (three by three points). With 15 starters back, I'm expecting to see a few more wins out of the Rams in 2012.
Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with at least 6 more starters returning than their opponent, provided it is the first of month of the season, are 46-16 ATS since 1992. Teams fitting this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have only lost by an average of 0.3 points.
The Buffaloes have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their last 10 games, and I expect this trend to continue.