3* Holiday Bowl *BEST BET*
California vs. Texas,
12/28/2011 20:00 EDT,
Score: 10 - 21
Point Spread: -3½/-105 Texas
3* Holiday Bowl *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Texas -3.5
I like Texas in this game because of its defense, which led the Big 12 and finished 15th in the nation with 315.3 yards allowed per game. This unit should be able to stifle a very mediocre Cal offense that relies heavily on inconsistent QB Zach Maynard to move the football.
The Golden Bears rank 37th in total offense at 418.4 yards per game, and they aren't even as good offensively as their ranking might lead you to believe. First off, there isn't a defense in the Pac-12 as good as Texas' stop unit. Secondly, their offensive numbers were boosted by a 581-yard effort against cream puff Presbyterian.
These two both played UCLA on the road. Texas held the Bruins to 317 yards in a 49-20 win. Cal gave up 386 yards in a 31-14 defeat.
Offense was an issue for the Longhorns down the stretch, but some of their problems should be solved with the return of running backs Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron.
The Longhorns have won seven of their last nine postseason games, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Lay the points.