15* Interleague Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +125
Detroit vs. Cincinnati,
06/08/2012 19:10 EDT,
Score: 5 - 6
Money Line: +125 Detroit
The Detroit Tigers should not be an underdog tonight to the Cincinnati Reds. Because Detroit has struggled through the first 1/3 of the season, they are undervalued. I have no doubt this team will turn it around to likely win the AL Central division.
Mat Latos is one of the most overrated starters in the league. He just hasn't been the same since leaving pitcher-friendly San Diego, coming over to hitter-friendly Cincinnati this season. Latos has posted a 4.91 ERA in 11 starts this season, slightly worse than the 4.86 ERA that Rick Porcello sports in 11 starts for Detroit.
This is a pretty evenly-matched game on the mound, but I believe the Tigers have a huge edge at the plate. Detroit is hitting .269 and scoring 4.7 runs/game against right-handed starters this season, while Cincinnati is batting .236 and scoring 4.1 runs/game against right-handers.
Detroit is 31-12 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 9-28 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 since 1997. The Tigers are 37-18 in their last 55 vs. National League Central, including 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 starts vs. NL Central foes. The Reds are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. AL Central opponents. Roll with the Tigers Friday.