15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego -116
LA Dodgers vs. San Diego,
05/17/2012 22:05 EDT,
Score: 8 - 1
Money Line: -116 San Diego
I'm going to back the San Diego Padres tonight as they clearly have the better starter on the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers just aren't the same without NL MVP candidate Matt Kemp in the line-up.
That has been evident in their last two games as the Dodgers have scored a combined 3 runs in losses to the Diamondbacks and Padres. Things won't get any easy for L.A. tonight against Edinson Volquez, who is 2-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 8 starts this season.
Volquez really loves throwing in pitcher-friendly San Diego, where he has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.098 WHIP through six starts. He'll be opposed by the washed up Aaron Harang, who is 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 7 starts this season.
Harang is 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in four road starts this year. He has been blown up for 14 earned runs, 31 base runners and 4 home runs over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against San Diego.
The Padres come in with some momentum after two straight wins. This play falls into a system that is 33-13 (71.7%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, terrible team, winning 38% or less of their games on the season. Take San Diego Thursday.