20* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 197
LA Lakers vs. Denver,
05/10/2012 22:30 EDT,
Score: 96 - 113
Total: -102/+197 Under
You could make the argument that every game in this series should have gone UNDER the total. The UNDER is 3-2 in the first five games, with the two OVERS going over by a combined 5.5 points. It took a 60-point combined 4th quarter in Game 5 for it to go OVER.
What I'm saying is that the clear value in Game 6 is with the UNDER. The defensive intensity in this game will be greater than any other game in this series yet. The Lakers have taken two games off defensively, and those are the two games that went OVER as Denver topped 100 points in each.
The Lakers will not take tonight off defensively. They realize they let a big opportunity slip away in Game 5, and now Kobe Bryant will rally the troops and make sure that his team executes on defense. Andrew Bynum has been called out by the media, so look for him to be a defensive stopper in the paint.
Los Angeles also got out of their game offensively in Game 5. They tried to run with Denver, which doesn't work. Look for the Lakers to slow down the pace and run their offense through their big men inside. This game will be played at a much slower tempo than Game 5 as the Lakers get back in transition defensively, and execute better offensively.
These teams have combined to average 191.8 points/game through the first five games, which is more than 5 points less than the posted total tonight. The UNDER is 22-7 in the last 29 meetings in this series. The UNDER is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Denver. These teams combined for 183 and 180 points in Games 3 and 4 in Denver, respectively.
The Lakers are 10-2 to the UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 21-6 in Lakers last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-7 in Nuggets last 27 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Thursday.