20* Spurs/Jazz TNT Monday No-Brainer on Utah +8
San Antonio vs. Utah,
05/07/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 87 - 81
Point Spread: +8/-105 Utah
I fully expect the Utah Jazz to lay it all on the line in Game 4 to avoid the sweep. Utah is a prideful team and one that will not quit even though they lost the first three games of this series. I also expect the San Antonio Spurs to relax knowing they have a 3-0 lead, which will allow Utah to cover this inflated number in a game I believe they can win outright.
Utah showed they could play with San Antonio in Game 3 as they trailed by just 2 at halftime before getting outscored by 10 points after intermission. The Jazz were just a 5.5-point underdog in that game, and now they are catching 8 points. That's 2.5 points of value, and I'll gladly take advantage.
This play falls into a system that is 53-25 (67.9%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites (SAN ANTONIO) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record.
The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Utah in Game 4 Monday.