15* Spurs/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 202.5
San Antonio vs. Utah,
05/05/2012 22:00 EDT,
Score: 102 - 90
Total: -107/+202½ Under
Oddsmakers continue to set the total too high in this San Antonio Spurs versus Utah Jazz series. Game 1 was set at 205.5 and finished with 197 combined points, and Game 2 was set at 202.5 and finished with 197 combined points as well. They have set Game 3 at 202.5, and it's once again too many points.
The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That favors the defenses as teams know how to take away the offensive strengths of the opposition. After the Spurs average 110 points/game in the first two games of this series, I have no doubt that Utah will make the proper adjustments to slow down San Antonio.
Utah has averaged 88.3 points/game in their last three meetings with San Antonio, so the Spurs have them figured out. The Jazz have been a solid defensive team at home all season, allowing just 95.9 points/game in Salt Lake City. The Spurs give up 96.2 points/game on the season.
This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.
Utah is 9-1 to the UNDER revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Jazz are 13-4 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.