Dallas vs. Oklahoma City, 04/28/2012 21:30 EDT, Score: 98 - 99

Point Spread: -7½/-105 Oklahoma City

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

Today's winner is Oklahoma City over Dallas. This is my No Limit Play.

The Mavs had a tough season. They lost Tyson Chandler to New York. Lamar Odom's antics got him his walking papers. And their biggest concern is that they can't win on the road, where they are 13-20, which is the 2nd worst of any team in the playoffs. OKC took 3 of the 4 matchups over Dallas this season. The Mavs played 7 of their final 10 games on the road. They will be tired here. By the way, they covered just 2 of those 7 outings. Oklahoma City has certainly matured this season as I watch them truly play like a unit. Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are combining for 68.4 PPG, 16.7 RPG, 12.7 APG, and average approximately 35 minutes playing time apiece. With Ibaka and Perkins (14.1 RPG combined) plugging up the middle and owning the glass, Dallas' recent schedule, age, and opponent will all play a part in the reason why the Mavs won't be able to go 4 quarters. The Thunder are 18-8 ATS their L26 games following an ATS loss, 58-27-1 ATS their L86 games played after a SU loss, and 8-2-1 ATS their L11 games played on 2 days rest. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS their L7 games played overall, 1-4 ATS their L5 games played on the road, and 1-5 ATS their L6 games played vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600. Take Oklahoma City. Thank you.

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