5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET*
Dallas vs. Miami,
03/29/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 85 - 106
Point Spread: -8/-105 Miami
5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals.
Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here.
Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points.
It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games.
With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.