3* Final Four SMASH
Louisville vs. Kentucky,
03/31/2012 18:09 EDT,
Score: 61 - 69
Point Spread: +8½/-101 Louisville
3* Final Four SMASH on Louisville +8.5
Louisville played Kentucky to a 7-point game Dec. 31 while holding the Wildcats to a season-low 29.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a better team than it was then, but so is Louisville.
It that contest, the Cards hounded the Kentucky guards and forced them into 21 turnovers. I expect Louisville's pressure defense to once again give the Wildcats problems.
Kentucky was dominant on the glass in the first meeting but the Cards still managed to cover the spread. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game - this season.
Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral floor games against non-conference foes this season and 8-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.
It is also worth noting that Louisville is 34-15 ATS all-time under coach Pitino when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.
All the pressure is on Kentucky here, and the Cards will draw plenty of confidence from having played the Wildcats tough earlier this season. We'll take the points.