5* BEEF 'O' BRADY TOP PLAY BEATDOWN
Florida International vs. Marshall,
12/20/2011 20:00 EDT,
Score: 10 - 20
Point Spread: +4½/-105 Marshall
Rarely will you see a Sun Belt team favored in a bowl game, let alone a team that finished 4th in a conference that many consider to be the worst in college football. I'm not saying FIU isn't good enough to win this game, but the smart money here is on Marshall. Almost every time you see a team come into a bowl game off 3 straight wins where they covered the covered the spread, they will be way overvalued. Exactly the case tonight.
Marshall comes into the bowl game playing their best football, as they had to win four of their final six games just to become bowl eligible. This team worked so hard to get to the opportunity to play another game, I can't imagine them not coming in extremely focused and motivated to beat FIU.
While I think FIU will be excited to play in a bowl game for a second straight season, I can't see this team getting all that excited to play Marshall, a team they are expected to beat. However FIU is just 2-12 ATS after a bye week since 1992 and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Marshall is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December and a solid 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games. BET THE THUNDERING HERD +4.5!