4* Elite 8 SMASH
Baylor vs. Kentucky,
03/25/2012 14:20 EDT,
Score: 70 - 82
Point Spread: +8/-109 Baylor
4* Elite 8 SMASH on Baylor +8
Baylor has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role under coach Drew at 70-51 ATS. Look for the Baylor Bears to keep this one within the number Sunday.
The value clearly lies with Baylor here as it enters off a hard-fought win over Xavier in which it didn't cover the spread. Kentucky, meanwhile, has rolled in back-to-back wins and covers over Iowa State and Indiana. Those performances are sure to get the attention of the public and odds makers are well aware of that fact.
One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against Baylor following an ATS loss. That's because the Bears are on a 5-0 ATS run in this situation and have won these contests by an average 14.8 points. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.
The Wildcats, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Baylor has the size and athleticism to match up with Kentucky. Plus, it has been unfazed when playing in neutral court/road games this season, posting a 16-4 record. Bet Baylor.