4* Sweet 16 SMASH
Louisville vs. Michigan State,
03/22/2012 19:47 EDT,
Score: 57 - 44
Point Spread: +5/-103 Louisville
4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Louisville +5
I think Louisville is getting too many points given how well it is playing and with one of the best in the business on the sidelines (coach Pitino).
Michigan State only defeated St. Louis by 4 points despite shooting 54.3% from the field and holding the Billikens to 35.3% shooting. That's not a good sign.
Louisville is 11-4 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season. It has won these games by an average score of 63.9 to 62.3. It is also 6-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average score of 64.5 to 56.3.
The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Spartans are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. We'll take the points.