15* Blazers/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4
Portland vs. LA Lakers,
02/20/2012 22:30 EDT,
Score: 92 - 103
Point Spread: -4/-103 LA Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value tonight as a mere 4-point home favorite over the Portland Trail Blazers. They have been simply money at home all season, and this is a very generous line tonight.
The only reason I can see the Lakers being such a small favorite here is because they are playing the second of a back-to-back. But you could argue that Portland is the more tired team as they will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, while the Lakers are only playing their 4th game in 8 days. Off a poor performance last night in Phoenix, there's no doubt the L.A. will come back motivated tonight.
Los Angeles is 13-2 SU & 10-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.8 points/game. They are only yielding 85.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting at home. That's bad news for the Blazers, who are just 5-10 on the road this season, scoring 91.3 points/game on 41.8 percent shooting.
This play falls into a system that is 35-12 (74.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. L.A. is 32-8 in their last 40 and 16-3 in their last 19 home meetings with Portland at Staples Center. Roll with the Lakers Monday.