20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Heat UNDER 207.5

20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Hawks/Heat UNDER 207.5

Atlanta vs. Miami, 12/23/2013 19:30 EDT, Score: 119 - 121

Total: -110/+207½ Under

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between two of three teams in the Eastern Conference who actually have winning records on the season. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle between the Hawks and Heat tonight.

It's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The reason why is that Atlanta has gone over the total in nine of its last 10 games overall, while Miami has gone over the number in eight of the last 10. These recent over trends have forced the oddsmakers to set too big of a number here as the betting public is all over the over. We'll take advantage and back the under.

This will be the second meeting of the season between Atlanta and Miami. The first resulted in a 104-88 home win by the Heat with a total set of 204.5 points. They combined for 192 points in that game, and I look for a similar result in this one.

Get this. If you don't count overtime, Miami and Atlanta have combined for 201 or fewer points in 28 straight meetings since 2008. That's a perfect 28-0 system backing the UNDER in this game pertaining to tonight's total set of 207 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

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