20* Ohio/East Carolina Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio +14
Ohio vs. East Carolina,
12/23/2013 14:00 EDT,
Score: 20 - 37
Point Spread: +14/-104 Ohio
The Ohio Bobcats certainly looked terrible in losing three straight games down the stretch in blowout fashion. However, they showed tremendous character by coming out on Senior Day and destroying Massachusetts by a final of 51-23 to really take out their frustration. That effort was led by senior quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who has had a tremendous career here. He came into the season as the school’s all-time leading passer, and he’ll leave having shattered that mark.
Tettleton is completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 2,623 yards with 20 touchdowns against nine interceptions on the season. He is the type of leader that will have his team ready for this bowl game, just as he has the past two seasons in the role of the underdog. The Bobcats upset Utah State as a 2-point underdog in the Idaho Potato Bowl in 2011 by a final of 24-23. They came back in 2012 and topped Louisiana-Monroe 45-14 as a 7-point dog after a similar disastrous finish to the regular season. Frank Solich just has a way of getting his team to respond when they have been counted out.
East Carolina will be deflated following its most devastating loss of the season, a 28-59 setback at Marshall with a trip to the Conference USA Championship on the line. It gave up a ridiculous 539 total yards in the loss while committing three turnovers. That game is important to note considering it’s the only common opponent that these teams share. Ohio actually beat Marshall 34-31 at home back on September 14 earlier this season. It is 2-0 against Conference USA opponents this season, also beating a solid, bowl-eligible North Texas team on September 7.
It's also worth nothing that bowl teams off a blowout loss of 31 to 40 points are 15-21 (41.7%) ATS. They tend to fall flat on their faces again and suffer a hangover from their blowout defeat. Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO U) – after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games are 216-135 (61.5%) ATS since 1992.
The Pirates are 8-19 against the spread in road games when playing with two or more weeks of rest since 1992. East Carolina is 0-4 in its last four bowl games dating back to 2008. The Pirates are 0-8 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons. East Carolina is 0-7 against the number after three straight games where 70 total points or more were scored since 1992. These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system going against the Pirates. Take Ohio Monday.