5* CFB Total of the Year on Pitt/Notre Dame UNDER

5* CFB Total of the Year on Pitt/Notre Dame UNDER

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh, 11/09/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 21 - 28

Total: -108/+51 Under

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

This total is set far to high given the way these teams matchup. Notre Dame should struggle to score against this outstanding Panthers secondary. The Irish have a balanced offensive attack, but rely on on the passing game for almost two thirds of their total yardage. Pittsburgh's secondary has held opponents to a 58.9% completion percentage for just 202 yards per game this season. That is 106 yards less than what the Irish are used to averaging through the air in road games this season.

Pittsburgh should also struggle to find the endzone against this Notre Dame defense that has held opponents to 23 points per game. Notre Dame's opponents have averaged 28.8 points per game this season, and the fact that they are holding them to just 23 points indicates just out underrated of a unit they are. Pittsburgh's offensive numbers are a bit misleading thanks to a soft schedule to start the season. In the last two weeks they have scored an average just 15.5 points per game.

The under is 11-2 in Notre Dame's last 13 games when coming off a home win. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under in a game involving two teams that are wining 50 yards per game of their opponents in a non-conference matchup between two teams from automatic qualifying BCS conferences. The Irish are an independent, but still account for several games in this system because of their automatic qualification status. This system is 54-22 in favor of the under over the last five seasons.


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