5* NFL Game of the Week
Houston vs. Cincinnati,
12/11/2011 13:00 EDT,
Score: 20 - 19
Point Spread: -1½/-125 Cincinnati
5* NFL Game of the Week on Bengals -1.5
Despite losing their top two QBs, the Texans have managed to pull out wins the last two weeks. I fully expect their luck to run out here as they hit the road to take on a hungry Bengals squad.
Without Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart, the Texans have really had to rely on their running game. They likely won't be able to do so this week, however, because the Bengals are one of the best run-stuffing clubs in the NFL. They rank 6th in the league with 96.3 rushing yards allowed per game.
The Bengals have the horses to force the third-stringer Yates to beat them through the air, and I don't think he can do it, especially without star wideout Andre Johnson.
The Texans were able to upset the Falcons last week but are only 1-9 ATS all-time in road games following an upset win. They have lost by an average score of 27.3 to 15.5 in this situation.
Plus, plays against road teams off an upset win at home, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, are 46-19 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting these parameters have lost by an average of 12.3 points. Bet the Bengals.