20* Thunder/Kings TNT Late-Night PARLAY on Sacramento +7/OVER 202
Oklahoma City vs. Sacramento,
02/09/2012 22:30 EDT,
Score: 101 - 106
Total: -105/+202 Over
I like both of these plays quite a bit tonight. The Sacramento Kings have been playing their best basketball of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an OVERS machine of late. I believe both selections get the cash tonight.
I am on Sacramento because they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they have only won three of those six games, their three losses all came on the road by a combined 8 points, and they were never beaten by more than 3 points. The Kings also picks up impressive home wins over the Blazers and Warriors.
Oklahoma City is simply overvalued at this point in the season due to the fact that they own the best record in the Western Conference at 20-5. But this team has simply been winning most of their close games, which is the reason for their good record. The Thunder are only outscoring opponents by 4.8 points/game on average, including 2.1 points/game on the road.
Sacramento has played the Thunder very tough at home over the past few seasons. The Kings have not lost to Oklahoma City by more than 8 points in any of their last six home meetings. Five of those six games were decided by 6 points or less.
Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the UNDER in their last 8 games overall. Not surprisingly, they have played their last six games without top defender Thabo Sefolosha, who is expected to miss tonight's game as well. The Thunder have topped the 100-point mark in six of their last eight games, but they have given up 109 or more points in five of their last seven. This team is not playing any defense right now.
The last two meetings in this series have seen 232 and 222 combined points, respectively. I expect a similar shootout tonight between two teams that play little defense. The OVER is 10-1 in Thunder last 11 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The OVER is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento. Bet the Kings and the OVER tonight.