20* Texans/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Houston +7
Houston vs. San Francisco,
10/06/2013 20:30 EDT,
Score: 3 - 34
Point Spread: +7/-130 Houston
There’s no question that Houston is one of the best teams in the league that currently has a record of .500 or worse. This team really should be 4-0 right now, but it continues to give games away. For example, the Texans had a 20-3 lead against Seattle and let it slip away, eventually losing in overtime last week. This team will come out with a chip on its shoulder after such a tough loss. That’s the same Seattle team that put a 29-3 beat down on the 49ers in Week 2.
Matt Schaub has already thrown three interceptions that were returned for touchdowns. Obviously, it’s very tough to overcome those type of mistakes and win games. However, I look for Schaub to take much better care of the football the rest of the way, starting with this week against the 49ers.
The numbers don’t lie, the Texans are still one of the best teams in the league. They rank 5th in the league in total offense at 410.2 yards per game, and 1st in total defense at 254.2 yards per game. As you can see, they are outgaining opponents by a whopping 156.0 total yards per game this season. That's by far the best mark in the league and one that would be more indicative of a team that is 4-0 rather than one that is 2-2. Due to that 2-2 record, the Texans are clearly undervalued heading into this one. I believe they are the better team and have an excellent chance to win outright.
The numbers are also telling for the 49ers as being just a mediocre team in 2013. That’s especially the case offensively where they rank just 21st in the league in total offense at 331.2 yards per game. This is a team that was blown out by both Seattle (3-29) and Indianapolis (7-27) in back-to-back weeks. The injuries are mounting up in San Francisco with the likes of Ian Williams, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley and Nnamdi Asomugha. Not to mention 2012?s NFL sack leader, Aldon Smith, is out as he continues to serve a suspension.
San Francisco is 0-9 against the spread in its last nine games versus teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers per game. The Texans are 35-16 against the number in their last 51 games following two or more consecutive losses. The 49ers are 5-13-2 against the spread in their last 20 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. Gary Kubiak is 18-9 against the number off two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Houston. Take the Texans Sunday.