Sunday's NFL Free Pick ---Philadelphia Eagles +11.5---

Sunday's NFL Free Pick ---Philadelphia Eagles +11.5---

Philadelphia vs. Denver, 09/29/2013 16:25 EDT, Score: 20 - 52

Point Spread: +11½/-110 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: JustBet

Result: Loss

Sunday's NFL Free Pick ---Philadelphia Eagles +11.5---

The Eagles have came back to earth after their impressive 33-27 win at Washington on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Back-to-back losses against the Chargers and Chiefs at home have certainly lowered the expectations. Losing to two teams projected to finish behind the Broncos in the AFC West standings certainly makes it that much harder to back Philadelphia on the road.

I’m not a fan of betting against Peyton Manning no matter what the situation, but this is one spot where I feel there's too much value to pass up.

A lot of people forget that the Eagles first three games have come in a span of 11 days. They haven’t had a whole lot of practice time to fix the wrinkles in their new offense. They will have had a full nine days to prepare for this game. Denver on the other hand is playing on short rest and will have just five days to get ready for the Eagles offense. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when their previous game was played on Monday Night Football.

I know the Broncos come into this game with the league’s top ranked run defense (43.3 ypg), but you have to remember that’s a direct result of the offense getting out to big leads and the other team abandoning the run. It’s the same reason why they rank 30th in the NFL against the pass (327.0 ypg). Philadelphia is going to get theirs on the ground and I’m not so sure this Denver defense is going to be able to keep them in check. It might not be enough for the Eagles to pull off the upset, but it certainly gives them a great opportunity to cover this spread. BET THE EAGLES!


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