4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2)
Middle Tennessee vs. Denver,
02/04/2012 16:00 EDT,
Score: 60 - 75
Point Spread: -1½/-110 Denver
4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2) on Denver -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Denver to know the target off MTSU's back in its return home Saturday.
Denver is a terrific 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
We also can't ignore the fact that coach Joe Scott's clubs are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%).
Denver doesn't take many bad shots and shoots a high percentage because of it. This bodes well for us considering MTSU is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games versus very good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more. The Blue Raiders have lost to these foes by an average score of 77.1 to 62.7. Take Denver.