5* BLOCKBUSTER NL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH

5* BLOCKBUSTER NL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee, 07/08/2013 20:10 EDT, Score: 3 - 4

Money Line: +124 Milwaukee

Sportsbook: DSI

Result: Win

5* BLOCKBUSTER NL UNDERVALUED UNDERDOG GAME OF MONTH

---Milwaukee Brewers +124---

The Brewers should not be an underdog at home tonight, but it's not surprising to see Cincinnati's Homer Bailey overvalued after throwing a no hitter in his last start. Bailey is 1-6 with a 6.00 ERA in 12 career starts vs Milwaukee. That 6.00 ERA is the worst against any team he's faced more than seven times. A lot of people will be quick to also jump on the Reds after seeing they are 5-1 vs the Brewers this season, but keep in mind all six of those game came in Cincinnati. This will be the first meeting in Milwaukee, where they went 4-2 vs the Reds last season.

The big key that has me liking the Brewers is a red-hot Kyle Lohse, who is 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA over his last six starts and has a very respectable 3.18 ERA vs Cincinnati in his career (12 starts).

Lohse has thrived in the role of home underdog in his career, he's 25-13 over his last 38 starts when he's listed as a home dog of +100 to +125. He's also 19-6 over his last 25 starts vs NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse. The Reds on the other hand are just 4-12 against the money line this season in road games after scoring 2 or fewer runs in their previous game. BET THE BREWERS!


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