Miami vs. Philadelphia, 05/04/2013 19:05 EDT, Score: 2 - 0

Point Spread: -1½/+111 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Loss

FREE PLAY for 5/4/13
Phillies -1.5 +111
The Key: The Marlins have lost the first two games of the series by 5 and 3 runs, and I expect them to fall again here. The Marlins are 0-7 in their last 7 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and have lost by an average of 3.6 runs in these spots. Miami is even 0-8 in its last 8 road games versus teams that have a losing record, and it's 0-11 in its last 11 road games versus a left-handed starter. These 11 losses have come by an average of 3.5 runs. Miami's struggles against lefties should continue here as it is scoring only 1.3 runs per game while hitting just .198 against southpaw starters this season. Cole Hamels has pitched well in each of his last four starts and has given up just 2 total runs in his last 22 innings against the Marlins. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 versus the NL East and 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts as a favorite of -201 or greater. Take Philly on the run line.

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