4* Bailout Blowout on San Diego Padres +
Milwaukee vs. San Diego,
04/24/2013 22:10 EDT,
Score: 1 - 2
Money Line: +110 San Diego
Edinson Volquez isn't off to the best start so far this season but he is coming off a two run, six inning performance in San Francisco. I think he'll build off that since he was significantly better at home than on the road last year. Volquez had a 5.60 ERA in 15 road starts but a 2.95 ERA in 17 home starts. This year, his lone home start came five days after facing the Rockies the first time, so they were familiar with him and took advantage.
Marco Estrada has been good this year, but he has given up six home runs already in 24 innings, so there has been some vulnerability. Last year Estrada was solid at home but struggled on the road (ERA splits were 2.97 and 4.53 , WHIP splits were 0.92 and 1.44). 2011 wasn't any difference (ERA splits of 2.77 and 5.75, WHIP splits of 1.06 and 1.40.
The Brewers are a hot team, they have won nine straight game, but over the past week they have scored six runs per game on only .229 hitting. The Padres on the other hand have scored 3.6 runs per game on .260 hitting. The odds are going to catch up to these two teams, and that makes San Diego a nice value here at home.