20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5
LA Lakers vs. San Antonio,
04/21/2013 15:30 EDT,
Score: 79 - 91
Total: -110/+190½ Under
The books have set the bar way too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 1 in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.
Los Angeles' scheme has changed completely since losing Kobe Bryant for the season. They now have to slow the game down and run their offense through big men Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, which is something they probably should have been doing more of all season.
The results have been absolutely stunning. They are playing better as a team, especially defensively as their opponents get less possessions. The Lakers beat the Spurs 91-86 on April 14th in their first game without Kobe for 177 combined points. They came back with a 99-95 (OT) victory over the high-scoring Houston Rockets on April 17th in a game that was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points.
This play falls into a system that is 76-36 (67.9%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.
San Antonio is 7-0 to the UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Sunday games, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinal games. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.