15* Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 207
Denver vs. Dallas,
04/12/2013 20:30 EDT,
Score: 105 - 108
Total: -110/+207 Under
The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios.
The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out.
Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well.
When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings.
This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.
The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.