5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year
San Diego State vs. New Mexico,
01/18/2012 22:00 EDT,
Score: 75 - 70
Point Spread: -8½/-110 New Mexico
5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico -8.5
I believe 16th-ranked San Diego State is overrated, and this line certainly supports that claim. The Aztecs return just one starter from last year's team while the Lobos return 4. Those 4 starters remember last season's 2 losses to SDSU well, and those 2 defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight.
New Mexico has been a tremendous investment, going 11-3 ATS in all lined games this season and winning those games by an average of 17.4 points.
The fact New Mexico enters this contest off 3 consecutive wins of 10 points or more also bodes well for us considering it is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. It is winning by an average of 13.5 points in this situation.
The defensive end has been the biggest reason why the Lobos have ripped off 13 straight wins. They rank 15th in the nation with just 58.0 points allowed per game. I expect the New Mexico to really dig in defensively tonight on their way to a double-digit victory.
The Lobos are 10-0 ATS all-time under coach Alford after holding 4 straight opponents to 65 points or less. They are winning by an average of 16.3 points in this situation. Lay the number.