15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9.5
Phoenix vs. Chicago,
01/17/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 97 - 118
Point Spread: +9½/-110 Phoenix
It's amazing that there is even a line up for this game considering Derrick Rose (toe) is listed as questionable and will be a game-time decision. The good news is I like Phoenix whether Rose plays or not. The great news is that if he doesn't play, then getting the Suns at 9.5 is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.
Rose did not play yesterday in a 86-102 loss at Memphis. This is a very tired Chicago team right now, and even if Rose plays, the rest of their players are going to be worn down. This will be Chicago's 7th game in 9 days, and their 11th game in 15 days. It's clearly their toughest stretch of the season.
Phoenix comes in on solid rest as this will be only their 2nd game in four days. The big reason they are showing such great value is due to their 4-game losing streak. They have failed to cover four straight against the spread, but now is the time to jump on board. You won't find Phoenix showing much better value the rest of the season than they are tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 60-26 (69.8%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (CHICAGO) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Roll with the Suns Tuesday.