3* CBB HEAVY HITTER on Virginia Tech +
Virginia Tech vs. Virginia,
02/12/2013 19:00 EDT,
Score: 55 - 73
Point Spread: +14½/-110 Virginia Tech
Virginia has been rolling lately but I think they are laying a few too many points here today against their in-state rivals. Virginia Tech has lost six in a row since dropping the first game in this series, but other than the Virginia game all of the losses have been by less than today's number.
In that game they were five point home underdogs, and now are getting almost ten more points on the road. That is a significant adjustment for a team that doesn't have to travel outside of the state. Plus, even though the Cavs won by 16 points, they hit over 50% of their shots and were 11-for-23 from behind the three point line. Virginia also committed eight less turnovers, despite being a more turnover prone team on the season than Virginia Tech is.
Last time out Virginia Tech had a disappointing home loss to Georgia Tech, but their second best player Jarell Eddie was benched for most of the second half after slamming a water bottle down following picking up his third foul. Virginia picked up a big win over Maryland on Sunday, so they didn't have much time to prepare for this game. With North Carolina on deck this is the perfect look past situation. I'll take the large number and the Hokies today.
You want to fade double digit home favorites playing on one or less days rest in February. Doing so would have gone 116-64 (64.4%) over the last four years. You want to take double digit underdogs revenging a home loss. these teams are 779-580 (57.3%) the last five years, and when that team is off two straight conference losses that system tightens to 260-173 (60%).