15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +9
Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix,
02/10/2013 20:00 EDT,
Score: 97 - 69
Point Spread: +9/-115 Phoenix
The Phoenix Suns are showing solid value as a big home underdog to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The betting public is not going to want to back the Suns after they got throttled 96-127 at Oklahoma City on Friday.
However, I'll gladly take advantage and back Phoenix at a great price in the rematch of this home-and-home situation. The Suns want revenge after getting embarrassed, while the Thunder will have a hard time getting motivated to play a team they just beat by 31 two nights ago.
Also, Oklahoma City shot out of their mind in Friday's game against the Suns. It shot 57.5% from the field and 14-of-21 (66.7%) from 3-point range. That's not going to happen again, and Phoenix will easily stay within this number, possibly pulling off the upset.
This play falls into a system that is 48-21 (69.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, on Sunday games.
The Suns are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Phoenix Sunday.