3* on Nebraska-Omaha +

3* on Nebraska-Omaha +

Nebraska Omaha vs. Western Illinois, 02/07/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 50 - 68

Point Spread: +15½/-105 Nebraska Omaha

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

It's going to be easy for Western Illinois to look passed Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. This team stands at 9-2 in Summitt League play and has their next two games on the road at North Dakota State and South Dakota State, the two teams they are tied with atop the conference standings.

This is a lot of points for a team to be laying that scores only 61 and gives up 52.5 ppg. They are playing solid defense, but Nebraska-Omaha does shoot 47.2% from the floor so they can score points of their own. Nebraska-Omaha has shot 54% in their last five games, a big reason why they have pulled upsets off over South Dakota, UMKC, and IUPU-Fort Wayne and are now shooting 50.1% in conference play.

The first time these teams met Western Illinois won by a final of 89-74, but they shot 84.6% from the line in that game, 57.4% from the floor, and 55.6% from behind the arc. I know the Mavericks defense isn't near as good as the Leathernecks, but those stats are outliers and with a more normal night of shooting Nebraska-Omaha would have covered the first time around. I think with some regression to the mean they cover easily tonight.

You want to play on double digit underdogs revenging a home loss, these teams have gone 768-567 (57.5%) over the last five seasons. When that loss was by 10 points or more the system tightens to 436-306 (58.8%).


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