3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -

3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -

Golden State vs. Oklahoma City, 02/06/2013 20:00 EDT, Score: 98 - 119

Point Spread: -10/-108 Oklahoma City

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -

Golden State is impressive this year with a 30-18 record but two things stand out to me. The first is that they are only outscoring opponents by one point per game, so that record seems a little inflated. The second is that this team is a lot better at home then they are on the road. Sure, the Warriors might be 14-12 as the visitor, but they are getting outscored by 2.2 ppg in those games.

Oklahoma City is a dominant team that isn't afraid to blow people out. They are scoring 108 ppg at home and giving up just 95.8 ppg for a 12.2 ppg margin. They shoot well from the floor and behind the arc, they get to the line, and shoot a high rate there. Plus, this team is in a revenge spot since they lost at Golden State back on 1/23 by five points. In that game the Thunder were coming off a back-to-back with the Clippers, now they are at home and the Warriors are coming off a back-to-back. I don't think the line has been adjusted enough, going from Thunder -1 to -10.

You want to take favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg after they have led the last three games by five or more at half when they are playing a team with a margin of +/-3. These teams are 70-34 67% ATS since 1996.


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