25* NFL Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Texans +9
Houston vs. Baltimore,
01/15/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 13 - 20
Point Spread: +9/-135 Houston
The Houston Texans simply have not gotten the respect the deserve since TJ Yates took over as starting quarterback. You have to remember that this was a run-first team even with Matt Schaub under center to start the season. They should have been a bigger favorite last week when I backed them as a 3-point favorite in a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati.
The Texans certainly should not be getting this many points against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round. Houston has the better offense and the better defense statistically. The Texans are 2nd in the league in total defense (285.7 yards/game) while the Ravens are 3rd (288.9 yards/game). Houston is 13th in the NFL in total offense (372.1 yards/game) while the Ravens are 15th (338.7 yards/game).
Houston has the perfect formula to win in the playoffs. You always have a chance if you have a running game and a stout defense. I know the regular season has been home to several passing records this year, but when it comes to the playoffs, you need a running game and a defense to be successful. Houston has what it takes to pull off this upset Sunday.
This play falls into a system that is 38-11 (77.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
Having already played the Ravens once, the Texans will be much more prepared this time around. The Texans were also playing without Andre Johnson in that 14-29 loss to Baltimore, but he is back and healthy now. Johnson led the Texans with five receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown against Cincinnati last week. He makes a huge difference when he's on the field.
The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Houston is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Texans are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Houston is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. These five trends make for a perfect 21-0 system backing Houston. Bet the Texans Sunday.