3* on UMKC +
UMKC vs. South Dakota State,
02/02/2013 17:05 EDT,
Score: 57 - 88
Point Spread: +20½/-101 UMKC
3* on UMKC +
This is a quick turnaround for both teams today as they both took to the court Thursday night. The difference is that Thursday South Dakota State played their in-state rival South Dakota. Rivalry games tend to take a little more out of teams than normal contests. In fact, you want to fade double digit favorites off home wins against conference rivals in February games. This situation is 202-127 (61.4%) the last five seasons. When the line is 20+ those numbers jump to 92-49 (65.2%).
The focus and energy on today's game has to be an edge given to the Kangaroos. Double digit underdogs playing their second road game in three days in February are 88-37 (70.4%) the last five years. Even though UMKC was blown out last time out, that actually gives us a little bit of value with today's line. Underdogs of 20+ points off a double digit conference loss are 33-10 (76.7%) the last five Februarys.
I know South Dakota State took care of UMKC down in Kansas City rather easily. But that is yet another situation that opens up value for us today because 20+ point underdogs who are revenging a double digit home loss are 84-32 (72.4%) the last five years.
If you look at the scoring margins for these two teams you'll find them a little misleading. UMKC is losing by 10.1 ppg, while South Dakota State is winning by 6.9. However, the Jackrabbits opponents get beat by an average of two points per game, while the Kangaroos foes are winning by a point per game. The stronger schedule of UMKC has slightly de-valued their stat line and made them an under-rated team in conference play.