3* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Falcons +

3* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Falcons +

San Francisco vs. Atlanta, 01/20/2013 15:00 EDT, Score: 28 - 24

Point Spread: +4½/-110 Atlanta

Sportsbook: JustBet.cx

Result: Win

3* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Falcons +

San Francisco looked damn good last week against the Green Bay Packers, and much respect is given to them, but laying points on the road in a playoff game is a tall order. You don't see many home dogs after the first round of the playoffs, but when you do they are normally a good bet. Since 2001 the situation has occurred only nine times and the home dog is 6-3 ATS, covering by an average of 5.94 ppg. The 49ers were even in this situation last year when they beat the Saints at home by four to advance to the NFC Championship game.

Atlanta got the monkey off their back last week against Seattle. The Seahawks even came back from a 20 point deficit to take the lead with 30 seconds to go, only to watch Matt Ryan step up, make the throws he needed to, and lead this team to victory. The fact that Atlanta dealt with some adversity and bucked up only makes me like them more this week.

The Falcons have one of the biggest home field advantages in the NFL. The Georgia Dome is a loud place to play and the turf makes it a fast track. I think too many bettors are looking at how Seattle battled back and see Atlanta as a weak team. Instead I see the Falcons as a team that finally knocked off what was one of my favorites. On the other hand you have a 49ers team that couldn't have looked any better. Kaepernick was outstanding, but getting to play Russell Wilson last week should prepare Atlanta for some of the things he likes to do.

I'm going to take the points as I think this is going to be a low scoring slugfest. The 49ers are the better team, but not by more than Atlanta's home field advantage. I'll gladly take more than a field goal in this spot.

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