Houston vs. New England, 01/13/2013 16:30 EDT, Score: 28 - 41

Point Spread: +10/-110 Houston

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

On Sunday the ACF Divisional Play is on Houston Game 115 at 4:35 eastern. Tom Brady is 19-26 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (9-19 ATS since November 2007). Houston is not playing the 3rd of 3 straight road games here and the Patriots needed the game much more in the first matchup than Houston did at the time. Houston has played much better on defense this season than the Patriots have and Revenging teams are 27-12 since 2002 in the Playoffs. The Patriots have struggled failing 7 of the last 8 times vs teams like Houston that win two thirds or more of their games if they are off a bye week and are favored by more than 3 points. The Simulations show the Patriots should win but not cover the spread which could get up to 10 by game time. The Patriots are 0-9 to the spread since 2005 at home when they are off a home game in which they prevented their opponent from getting into the end zone from first and goal. Another Solid system plays on playoff dogs with a better win percentage which Houston has at 13-4. Thus one has covered 21 of the last 30 times. Since 2001 home favorites from -5 to -10 that come in off a home favored win and prior road favored win are 0-4 ats. Houston is 10-2 ats with revenge and a perfect 3-0 in that role this season. Surprisingly the Patriots have failed to cover 23 of the last 32 times at home when the total is 45 to 49.5

Texans 5-0 ATS past 5 games in January
Texans 6-1 ATS past 7 as underdog
Texans 7-2 SU past 9 vs. AFC East teams
Texans 3-0 ATS lifetime in playoffs
Patriots 1-6 ATS in playoffs since 2008

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