3* Weekend Bailout on Houston Texans +

3* Weekend Bailout on Houston Texans +

Houston vs. New England, 01/13/2013 16:30 EDT, Score: 28 - 41

Point Spread: +9/-105 Houston

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Loss

3* Weekend Bailout on Houston Texans +

It's tough to go against a team as good as New England, but I think there is some value here in the underdog. Houston kind of limped into the playoffs, losing to the Patriots in New England 42-14 and then to Minnesota and Indianapolis to close out the season. I wasn't expecting much out of them against the Bengals, but the defense showed up in a big way. That defense is going to have to come through for them again on Sunday if they want to move on to the next round.

Even with Houston's defense, you know the Patriots are going to score. They put up 34.8 ppg this season by being great through the air. Brady completed 62.6% of his throws for 7.3 yards per attempt. The rushing attack was about average too, which is easy to explain when teams are dropping back into coverage.

Their defense though was a little suspect. New England allowed the opposition to complete 62.1% of their throws for 7.3 yards per attempt. I think Matt Schabb can take advantage of that defense. He completed 64.7% of his passes this year for 6.9 yards per attempt, plus he has a solid rushing attack to help him move the chains.

These two teams weren't all that different in terms of yardages numbers the first game, so I think the 28 point win is a little worse than it should have been. With that big of a blowout we have some value here with the underdog who will be out for revenge this weekend.

A solid system that supports our play that says take underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points revering a loss in which their opponent scored 28 or more points. If the team has a winning record and the rematch is in the second half of the season, these teams have gone 24-4 (85.7%) the last 10 years.

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