5* Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year on Syracuse OVER 71.5

5* Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year on Syracuse OVER 71.5

West Virginia vs. Syracuse, 12/29/2012 15:15 EDT, Score: 14 - 38

Total: -105/+71½ Over

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year on Syracuse OVER 71.5

Great situation here where you have a pass heavy team in West Virginia going against a terrible pass defense in Syracuse. The Mountaineers are completing 70.5% of their passes on the season (8.4% higher than their opponents give up) against the Orange giving up 63.1% passing (4.8% higher than their opponents average). On the other side you have Syracuse throwing 37 times a game and completing 62.9% of their passes against defenses allowing just 59.1% taking on a Mountaineers defense that gave up 64.6% passing and 9.6 yards per attempt.

A great system backs our play today on the OVER that says to take the OVER when the total is 70+ points and you have two teams averaging more than 440 yards per game the last third of the season and they have gained 450+ total yards in their last 3 games. This system is 38-9 (81%) over the last 10 years going over by an average of 8 ppg.

Snow is in the forecast which has made this total drop by a few points, but when teams throw in snowy conditions it makes things very difficult on the opposing defenses. Cornerbacks have more trouble staying with receivers in slippery conditions and I think it gives us an ever bigger advantage today. This is my Pre-New Year's Bowl Total of the Year.


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