15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5
Jacksonville vs. Miami,
12/16/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 3 - 24
Point Spread: +7½/-105 Jacksonville
The Jaguars have played their best football on the road this season. While they are just 1-5 straight up away from home, they are a very profitable 5-1 ATS. This team doesn't have the best following at home, so they have a hard time getting excited to play in a stadium that has thousands of empty seats. It's just a better atmosphere for these players when they go on the road.
They lost at Minnesota 23-26 in overtime as a 3.5-point dog, won at Indianapolis 22-17 as a 3-point dog, lost at Oakland 23-26 as a 6-point dog, lost at Green Bay 15-24 as a 15.5-point dog, and lost at Houston 37-43 in overtime as a 15-point dog in their five road covers.
Miami is actually getting outscored at home this season, and it has been one of the worst home teams in the league over the last couple decades. The Dolphins are 48-71 ATS in home games after the first month of the season since 1992. They are also 39-59 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The Dolphins simply do not score enough points to be a 7-point favorite against any team in this league. They are only averaging 18.5 points per game while ranking 29th in the league in total offense at 310.6 yards per game. Three of their five wins this season have come by 4 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 118-70 (62.8%) ATS since 1983. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) – after a loss by 10 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
After a 14-point loss to the 49ers last week to fall to 5-8, the Dolphins now realize that they are not going to make the playoffs. The Jaguars have known for a few weeks now that they weren't going to be making the postseason, but they have shown a lot of pride by continuing to fight. I believe that's why the Jaguars will be in a better state of mind heading into this one than the Dolphins.
Jacksonville is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 road games. Miami is 24-52-1 ATS in its last 77 home games. The Dolphins are 20-42-2 ATS in their last 64 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Roll with the Jaguars Sunday.