15* Lions/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Detroit +7
Detroit vs. Green Bay,
12/09/2012 20:20 EDT,
Score: 20 - 27
Point Spread: +7/-115 Detroit
The Lions are one of the best 4-8 teams in the history of the NFL. This team just continually beats itself, which is the only reason they are 4-8 right now instead of 8-4. They should have no problem getting motivated to face their NFC North rival as they want revenge from their 20-24 loss to Green Bay on November 18th, which was another game they gave away.
All eight of Detroit’s losses have come by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or fewer. It has not been an underdog of more than 6.5 points all season, so it is showing perhaps its best value of the season heading into this showdown with Green Bay.
A closer look at the numbers shows that this team is better than its record would indicate. Detroit ranks 2nd in the league in total offense at 416.1 yards per game, and 19th in total defense at 353.5 yards per game. It is outgaining opponents by an average of 62.6 yards per game, which is a number more indicative of a team that is 8-4 rather than one that is 4-8.
Detroit has played Green Bay very tough in recent meetings, especially on the road. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 4 points or less. That includes a 41-45 road loss at Green Bay last season, and a 26-28 loss at Lambeau in 2010. This team has proven it has what it takes to give the Packers a game over the last few seasons. It will be highly motivated to put an end to a 21-game road losing streak in this series.
The Packers have all kinds of injury issues heading into this one. As of this writing, both LB Clay Matthews and WR Jordy Nelson did not practice Wednesday and neither is likely to play Sunday. Also, DE Mike Neal and RB James Starks are unlikely to play. S Charles Woodson and CB Sam Shields may return, but no matter who is out there for the Packers, I have no doubt the Lions can stay within a touchdown and possibly pull off the upset.
Jim Schwartz is 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 straight games with 40 or more pass attempts as the coach of Detroit. The Lions are winning in this spot by an average score of 22.8 to 21.8. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. Bet the Lions Sunday.