5* Cotton Bowl *BEST BET*
Kansas State vs. Arkansas,
01/06/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 16 - 29
Point Spread: -8½/-110 Arkansas
5* Cotton Bowl *BEST BET* (FOX) on Arkansas -8.5
Kansas State is perhaps the most overrated team in the country, and I believe this line reflects just how overrated the books feel it is.
One might expect to see a spread of 3 points on a neutral field between a pair of highly ranked teams with identical records, but odds makers know the Wildcats, which have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 games, aren't deserving of that much respect.
Consider that plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 straight wins against conference rivals, a top-level team winning 80% of its games or more and playing a team with a winning record, are 33-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 15.8 points.
The Arkansas offense, which ranks 13th in the country with 307.8 passing yards per game, should be able to march down the field at will against a K-State defense ranked 105th against the pass with 267.2 yards allowed per game.
Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Big 12. The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Lay the points.