15* Michigan/Ohio State ABC Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State -3
Michigan vs. Ohio State,
11/24/2012 12:00 EDT,
Score: 21 - 26
Point Spread: -3/-115 Ohio State
The Ohio State Buckeyes have incredibly managed to stay focused throughout the season despite knowing they have to serve a postseason ban. First-year head coach Urban Meyer has done an excellent job with these players, and there’s no question they want to cap off an unbeaten season.
Getting an undefeated team at home on Senior Day as only a 3.5-point favorite is certainly a generous line from the oddsmakers. Ohio State is 7-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents 42.1 to 21.6, or by an average of 20.5 points per game. All three of Michigan’s losses this year have come on the road.
The key to stopping the Wolverines is stopping Denard Robinson and their running game. They rank 36th in the country in rushing at 194.5 yards per game. Ohio State has the antidote with the nation’s 18th-rank run defense at 116.8 yards per game. It is giving up a mere 3.5 yards per carry on the ground this season.
Ohio State has won seven of the last eight meetings in this series. It did fall 34-40 at Michigan last season, but it is a much improved team from a year ago. The Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are 42-17 ATS vesus good rushing teams – averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Ohio State is 47-20-1 ATS in its last 68 conference games, while Michigan is 11-27 ATS in its last 38 conference games. The Buckeyes are 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ohio State Saturday.