20* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals +10
Arizona vs. Atlanta,
11/18/2012 13:00 EDT,
Score: 19 - 23
Point Spread: +10/-115 Arizona
The Cardinals are coming off their bye week, which couldn’t have come at a better time. It gives them a chance to regroup and refocus for the stretch run. Remember, this was a team that opened 4-0, which included a road victory at New England. Even after five straight losses, this team is still in the playoff hunt with a lot to play for.
There’s no question that Atlanta was fortunate to open 8-0 this season. Five of those eight wins came by 7 points or less, including unimpressive home wins over the Panthers (30-28) and Raiders (23-20). The Falcons are only outgaining opponents by 19.6 yards per game this season, which isn’t a number indicative of an 8-1 team.
Arizona has the better defense in this one and should be able to keep it close because of it. The Cardinals are giving up just 19.2 points per game while ranking 9th in the league in total defense at 320.8 yards per game. The Falcons rank 20th in the league in total defense, giving up a whopping 365.6 yards per game.
This play falls into a system that is 40-9 (81.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ARIZONA) - off a road loss, in November games. It falls into another system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13.
The Cardinals are an impressive 25-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. Atlanta is 3-15 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Arizona is 43-22 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992. Bet the Cardinals Sunday.