3* Thursday Night Football SMASH on Dolphins +3

3* Thursday Night Football SMASH on Dolphins +3

Miami vs. Buffalo, 11/15/2012 20:20 EDT, Score: 14 - 19

Point Spread: +3/-115 Miami

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Loss

3* Thursday Night Football SMASH on Dolphins +3
The Dolphins have been a terrific investment on the road in recent seasons. In fact, they are an impressive 15-6 against the spread when playing away from home dating back to the 2010-11 season. They are even on an awesome 8-1 against the spread run in road games following a home loss.

The Dolphins have had the upper hand in the series of late. They won each of last season’s meetings both straight up and against the spread with a 30-23 victory in Buffalo. Miami has won six of the past eight meetings straight up and against the spread and two in a row in Buffalo.

The Bills are arguably the worst defensive team in the NFL. They currently rank last in scoring defense with 31.7 points allowed per game and second-to-last in total defense with 410.0 yards allowed per game. They have the worst rushing defense in the league. They give up 163.7 rushing yards per game.

Buffalo’s poor run defense is a concern because Miami is on an 8-1 against the spread run against poor defenses that allow 4.5 rushing yards or more per carry. The Dolphins have won these games by an average score of 25.2 to 16.2.

The Dolphins are the better defensive team. They rank eighth in scoring defense with 20.7 points allowed per game and 22nd in total defense with 372.2 yards allowed per game.

The Bills are at their best when they’re running the football effectively, but the Dolphins will be able to slow down Buffalo’s running game. After all, they rank sixth in the league against the run with 94.2 yards allowed per contest.

Buffalo’s running game shouldn't be as tough to stuff either since Fred Jackson isn’t expected to be able to go. He is currently listed as doubtful after suffering a concussion last week.

Plays against home teams when the line is +3 to -3 in November that check in off a loss against a division rival are 30-9 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system tightens up to a perfect 8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take Miami.


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