3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo +10.5

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo +10.5

Toledo vs. Northern Illinois, 11/14/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 31

Point Spread: +10½/-107 Toledo

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Win

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo +10.5
Northern Illinois won last season’s meeting but only by three points. Over the last two decades, Toledo has either won or lost by fewer than 10 points in 13 of 16 meetings. It is on a 9-4-1 ATS run in the series. And, the underdog has covered the spread in seven of the past 10 meetings. With this in mind, I really like our chances catching double digits.

The Rockets have lost just two games this season and both losses came by just seven points against worthy opponents (Arizona and Ball State). It is also worth noting that Toledo has won its last four road games by an average of 8.3 points.

The Rockets were upset at home by Ball State last week, but they are a tremendous 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games following a game in which they did not cover the number.

In addition, history suggests Northern Illinois is being overvalued in this spot. Consider that plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21.0 points that check in off eight straight wins or more, provided they have a winning percentage of 80.0 percent or higher and are matched up against a team that has won 60.0 to 80.0 percent of its games, are 40-13 ATS the last two decades. The teams fitting into this situation have only won these games by an average of 8.1 points.

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