20* Ball State/Toledo MAC Tuesday No-Brainer on Ball State +7
Ball State vs. Toledo,
11/06/2012 20:00 EDT,
Score: 34 - 27
Point Spread: +7/-115 Ball State
The Cardinals have played a tougher schedule than the Toledo Rockets and they’ve managed to get through at a very respectable 6-3. Their only losses this season have come against Clemson, Kent State and Northern Illinois, which are three teams with a combined 25-3 record.
While Toledo is 8-1 this season, it has actually been outgained by an average of 10.3 yards per game on the year. That’s because it has a defense even worse than Ball State’s stop unit. It ranks 107th in the country in total defense at 465.0 yards per game allowed. It is very fortunate to be 8-1 to say the least as each of its last three wins have come by 5 points or less.
Ball State ranks 22nd in the country in total offense at 473.2 yards per game and it should have its way with Toledo’s stop unit. It also has a very balanced attack offensively, averaging 202 yards on the ground and 271 yards through the air.
The Cardinals want revenge from three straight losses in this series. They have 13 starters back from last year’s team compared to eight starters back for Toledo, so they are certainly a stronger team than a year ago. Toledo could be looking ahead to their game against Northern Illinois next week. Both the Rockets and the Huskies are undefeated within the conference, so that game will likely decide the MAC West champion.
Ball State is 13-2 against the spread in its last 15 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Cardinals are 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a win. They are also 7-1 against the spread in their last 8 games following a bye week. Rockets are 0-5 against the spread in their last 5 games following a bye week. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in the last 4 meetings. Bet Ball State.