3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo -6.5

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo -6.5

Ball State vs. Toledo, 11/06/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 34 - 27

Point Spread: -6½/-110 Toledo

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

3* NCAAF SMASH on Toledo -6.5
The Rockets have won eight in a row since losing their season opener 24-17 in overtime at Arizona. Their winning streak is very significant. Consider that home favorites matched up against a conference opponent following 7 or more consecutive wins are 82-38 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 24.2 points. This system is 7-2 ATS this season.

Toledo is 5-0 in MAC play and has won these games by an average of 11.4 points. It is 5-2 ATS in its last seven conference games dating back to last season.

The Rockets won last season’s meeting 45-28 at Ball State. They have won each of the past three meetings by an average of 10.3 points. It is also worth noting that the favorite is on a 4-1 ATS run in the series.

Toledo is on a 24-10 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, winning these games by an average score of 34.4 to 22.0. It is on a 10-2 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and has won these by an average score of 38.3 to 19.8.

The Cardinals are one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They rank 109th in total defense with 465.2 yards allowed per game and 101st in scoring defense with 33.3 points allowed per contest. They will struggle to slow down a Toledo offense that ranks 32nd in the nation in total offense with 454.7 yards per game and 34th in scoring with 34.3 points per game.

The Rockets outgained the Cards 507-395 in last season’s win. We'll lay the points.


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