15* Raiders/Chiefs AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Kansas City Chiefs -1
Oakland vs. Kansas City,
10/28/2012 16:05 EDT,
Score: 26 - 16
Point Spread: -1/-105 Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs are in a must-win spot already early in the season. Their bye week could not have come at a better time as they've had a chance to regroup after a 1-5 start. I believe this team is much better than its record, and as a result the Chiefs are way undervalued at this point of the season.
Kansas City ranks 8th in the NFL in total offense (379.3 yards/game), including 3rd in rushing (164.0 yards/game). It is also a respectable 15th in total defense (349.5 yards/game). As you can see, the Chiefs are outgaining opponents by roughly 30 yards/game this season. These numbers are more indicative of a 4-2 team rather than one that's 1-5 like Kansas City.
I believe Oakland is every bit as bad as its 2-4 record. It ranks 19th in the league in total offense (350.0 yards/game) and 17th in total defense (356.7 yards/game). Those numbers about right on par with its 2-4 record.
Both of the Raiders' wins have come on last-second field goals at home against the Jaguars and Steelers, who outgained them by 112 total yards and managed to blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter. The Raiders are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by a whopping 18.7 points/game.
The Chiefs have simply been shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers all season. They have committed 21 turnovers through six games already, and that pace simply will not keep up. There's no doubt they addressed that issue during their bye week, and I look for Kansas City to take much better care of the football with Brady Quinn getting the start over Matt Cassel. Look for the Chiefs to rely on their third-ranked rushing attack as Jamaal Charles has a monster game against Oakland.
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 9-1 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 seasons. The Raiders are 1-13 ATS vs. terrible teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992. These three trends combine for a 28-2 (93%) system backing Kansas City. Take the Chiefs Sunday.